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Bien comprendre les cotes dans les paris sportifs Bien comprendre les cotes dans les paris sportifs
Ok, en lisant ce titre d’article vous êtes sûrement en train de vous dire « non, mais attends, Maxence a craqué ! » Et bien, pas du tout, je trouve qu’il est nécessaire de revenir aux bases et tout particulièrement pour les novices qui me suivent.
Alors pour reprendre à la base, rien de plus normal que de commencer avec ce qui peut sembler banal et pourtant c’est le cœur de notre activité : les cotes . Savez-vous réellement ce qu’est une cote sportive et comment l’interpréter ?
Je suis sûr qu’en lisant cet article vous aurez tout de même appris une ou deux choses supplémentaires et dans tous les cas, un petit rappel ne fait pas de mal !
Le principe exact de la cote La cote. Qu’est-ce que la fameuse cote, si importante dans l’activité des paris sportifs ? Et bien, ce n’est ni plus ni moins que le chiffre qui va déterminer si vous êtes ou non en capacité de remporter gros. Concrètement, ce nombre définit à la fois votre gain potentiel, mais aussi vos chances de l’emporter . Pour le calculer, rien de plus simple : Votre mise x cote = votre gain potentiel
Prenons un exemple tout simple :
Si vous décidez de placer un pari sur la victoire du PSG cote à 2 face à Lyon : la cote à 2, c’est le gain brut et la mise c’est la cote à 1. Si vous gagnez, le gain potentiel, c’est le gain potentiel brut c’est la cote à 2 et le bénéfice c’est l’écart entre 2 et 1, donc 1. Côté argent cela donne pour une mise à 100€ : victoire du PSG cote de 2 soit un gain de 200€. Enlevez-y la mise de 100 euros au départ, vous avez un bénéfice de 100 € nets. Donc, plus la cote est élevée, plus vous l’emportez mais c’est aussi une probabilité de résultat moins sûr, c’est-à-dire un résultat de match qui a le moins de chances de se réaliser. En effet, la cote d’un événement est l’inverse de sa probabilité . Vous pouvez d’ailleurs facilement convertir la cote en pourcentage en effectuant l’opération (1/cote) x 100. Voici un nouvel exemple pour y voir plus clair :
Un match retour de Ligue des Champions entre Liverpool et PSG : la cote de Liverpool est de 1,35, la cote du match nul de 4,60 et la victoire du PSG est cotée à 6,55. En termes de probabilité on a donc 74% de chances de victoire pour Liverpool, 22% pour un nul et seulement 15% de chances pour le PSG de l’emporter. En faisant le compte, on remarque qu’en additionnant les pourcentages on arrive à 111% ! Pas de panique, cela équivaut à la marge totale du bookmaker sur lequel vous pariez en ligne. En résumé, cette notion de base est le socle de compréhension des paris sportifs puisque c’est la cote qui détermine le gain potentiel et la probabilité du résultat sur lequel vous misez.
Cotes minimales vs cotes maximales 1 – Les cotes minimales Que veut dire réellement cote minimale ? Ce concept de cote minimale existe-t-il seulement ? En théorie une cote minimale est à peine plus élevée que 1 . La cote minimale est donc de 1,01 ce qui fait un gain potentiel absolument ridicule. Qui pourrait miser pour gagner si peu ? Vous comprenez donc pourquoi vous ne retrouverez quasiment jamais ce type de cote.
Dans 99% des cas, cela n’existe pas. Avec une cotation si faible, cela signifie que le résultat est à 99% assuré et ce peut être le cas, par exemple et uniquement pour le tennis. On aurait alors affaire à un match où la différence est si flagrante entre les joueurs que celui-ci est quasiment plié avant d’être joué. Prenez par exemple un match Nadal contre un joueur classé aux alentours de la 200e place au premier tour d’un tournoi de seconde zone.
2 – Les cotes maximales Voyons maintenant ce qu’il en est des cotes maximales. Vous vous demandez peut-être s’il existe une limite de gain sur les paris, donc une limite de cote à la hausse. La réponse est qu’il n’y a pas de limite théorique pour les cotes maximales . Il peut exister des cotes supérieures à 1000 cependant il est quasiment improbable que cela se produise. Rappelez-vous comment est calculée la probabilité et prenons un exemple qui peut être fréquent pour le football.
Une cote supérieure à 1 000 peut être proposée pour un événement incroyable comme par exemple le quadruplé d’un défenseur qui n’a pas encore mis un seul but dans la saison. Vous voyez le genre. Cet exemple est tout à fait possible pour un pari simple. Les cotes maximales peuvent aussi être atteintes quand on fait des paris combinés . Le nom le dit : le principe veut que les cotes se combinent. En pariant sur des dizaines de matchs, on peut aussi arriver à ce nombre incroyable ! Mais attention à vous, car dans ce genre de cas extrêmes, le bookmaker sur lequel vous pariez, notamment les bookmakers ANJ qui imposent des limites, peut bloquer vos paris si la cote globale engendre un dépassement de plafond de gain fixé par le bookmaker en question.
Encore une bonne raison de ne pas parier sur les bookmakers ANJ et de passer à la vitesse supérieure, comme moi, en misant sur des bookmakers étrangers. En ayant une adresse française, c’est presque impossible. Une solution : rejoignez-nous dans mon Club Privé pour apprendre toutes les techniques de paris et n’espérer que la victoire. À très vite !
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